Posted by timtam (2012-06-30 08:40 CET)
Prologue - Head to head
I'm playing these two (Cancellara-Wiggins, Martin-Sagan) as 'package'. As these four are the main candidates for victory, and it will be a game of seconds in which every small error will be fatal.
Cancellara had that nasty fall in the Tour of Flanders, he seems recovered but will he be 100 percent already ? He was beaten in the Tour de Suisse prologue so against also a real specialist and main winner canditate Wiggins I think we should play on the value. Of course Wiggins will not take any risks to win a few seconds, but how will Cancellara think about risks after his injury earlier this year ? Anyway, the weather in Belgium is currently sunny, so I hope they can ride in dry circumstances.
Other match-up Martin-Sagan. Martin, just like Fabian, had that nasty and rather stupid accident on training, he also seems recovered but just not yet that 100 percent. While Sagan surely is to be on of the big stars in this Tour de France. And his form was prooved by beating Cancellara in the Tour de Suisse prologue.
So both bets will be close calls, probably with the right favourite, but not with the right odds, that's why I play them. (I'll be doing this also in sprints later on, searching value, not always the legs decide who ends up first ) GL
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