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Eng Conf.: Southport (-0.75) vs. Alfreton (+0.75)


Posted by BobbyG (2011-12-03 13:42 CET)

English Conference - Pick: ALFRETON (+0.75) @ Southport (-0.75) @ 1.8 with Pinnacle.

I mentioned in my previous write ups that Southport had been lucky to carry on winning for so long, and in the last match they finally came undone against Forest Green. Alfreton have shown a massive improvement in recent weeks and I think they should be good enough to pick up a point or more here.

Nick Law's men were unlucky midweek not to come away from Barrow with at least a point after a freak goal lost them the match, and previous to that they got a draw with Gateshead, and a superb win against fellow strugglers Hayes & Yeading. I think the fact they now have some confidence is a massive factor and this will carry through into this match.

It's also significant to note that Southport have been far better away from home than on their own turf, and that it's actually been 20 home games since they managed to beat anybody by more than 1 goal! They've also only won 4 of their 11 home games this term.

I think as the away side are such a bit price to win then it's worth a couple of units on the outright away win also, so this will be a split stakes bet.

So, despite the fact that this bet probably looks terrible when you consider the respective league positions of the two teams, I think we have more than enough on our side to warrant a bet here. We have a nice 0.75 goal head start in our favour too so even if Alfreton do lose, it'll probably only cost us half a unit. Good luck!
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