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Murat statistics

September
Stake 0
Payout 0.00
Profit 0.00
Yield 0 %
Alltime
Picks 353
Stake 1753
Payout 1896.95
Profit 143.95
Yield108 %
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Average odds 2.19
Average stake 4.97
Stats (W-V-L) 172-10-171
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MLB: Astros (D.Keuchel) vs. Blue Jays (M.Estrada)


Posted by Murat (2018-06-27 16:59 CET)

I might quite easily regret this, but if I'm not gonna pull the trigger when I calculate an existing value, than what's the point of all this? 
 
First things first, yes, Astros are one of the best teams of the league without a doubt, but they are not invincible, or anything, as they lost four home series so far this year and they are a 24-17 team at home, after all. These series are tied so far, Astros left more men on bases, but for instance Blue Jays hit only 2/15 when runners were on scoring positions. Ok, Morton recorded 13 strikeouts yesterday, but the day before, a very similar lineup hit seven times against Verlander and four of those hits were for extra bases. I can keep going, but I think you got the point, yes Astros are the better team, but Blue Jays with the record of 12-11 at June, belong to a respectable position in the majors. 
 
Anyway both of these teams have minus defenses and even though Astros have a better bullpen in general, if you split to last couple weeks, you'll see that Blue Jays' stuff overcame the sudden disappearance of their closer and several guys started to perform, as the difference between each stuffs is marginal. 
 
Let's come to the starters, as this is where it gets interesting for me. I feel like this is the time to fade Keuchel as big favorites, ok he's coming off two straight good outings, but they were against Royals after all. Before those two games, let's not forget there was a span of three games where he allowed 27 hits and 19 runs in 17 innings, as well. His once mighty slider has minus pitch numbers this year, all of his O-Swing%, O-Contact%, SwStr%, Contact% rates are the worst of his career except the rookie season. 
 
Blue Jays will counter with Estrada, a very well known commodity, who's having one of the best months of his entire major league career, as he's coming off four games in which he allowed total of five runs and he boosted a 26-5 K-BB ratio. I don't know if you know, but for instance his K% is better than Keuchel, or even though he pounds the strike zone more than Keuchel, his contact rate for such pitches is lower than Keuchel.
 
I think it'll be the tenth time I'm repeating that, but Astros are definitely the better side. So, if you don't like these kind of bets, simply stay away from it, but I believe both Astros and especially Keuchel are in the zone of fading as big home favorites, against solid but not spectacular teams with passable pitching staff. 2.5+

Discuss this pick in the BA forum

 

Active (non-settled) picks for MLB

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Active (non-settled) picks from Murat

Kickoff (CET) Match Pick Tipster
2018-09-16 18:00 Bills (+7.5) vs Chargers H Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Buccaneers (+3.5) vs Eagles H Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Jets vs Dolphins (+3) A Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Redskins (-5.5) vs Colts H Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Saints (-9.5) vs Browns H Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Steelers vs Chiefs (+4.5) A Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Titans vs Texans (-3) A Murat
2018-09-16 21:05 49ers (-6) vs Lions H Murat
2018-09-16 21:25 Broncos (-6) vs Raiders H Murat
2018-09-16 21:25 Jaguars vs Patriots (-1.5) A Murat
2018-09-17 01:20 Cowboys (41.5) vs Giants (41.5) UNDR Murat
2018-09-18 01:15 Bears (23.5 Team Total) vs Seahawks OVER Murat

Active (non-settled) picks

Kickoff (CET) Match Pick Tipster
2018-09-14 20:00 Dinamo Bucuresti vs Astra Giurgiu >2.5 Genghiz
2018-09-15 15:00 Brescia BTS vs Pescarra BTS >1.5 calciotips
2018-09-16 12:30 Roma vs Cheivo (+ 2 AH) A calciotips
2018-09-16 17:00 Start vs Lillestrøm <2.5 mightye
2018-09-16 18:00 Bills (+7.5) vs Chargers H Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Buccaneers (+3.5) vs Eagles H Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Jets vs Dolphins (+3) A Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Redskins (-5.5) vs Colts H Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Saints (-9.5) vs Browns H Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Steelers vs Chiefs (+4.5) A Murat
2018-09-16 18:00 Titans vs Texans (-3) A Murat
2018-09-16 18:30 Olympiacos vs Asteras Tripolis H lukaku1926
2018-09-16 20:00 CFR Cluj vs FCSB +0 A Genghiz
2018-09-16 21:05 49ers (-6) vs Lions H Murat
2018-09-16 21:25 Broncos (-6) vs Raiders H Murat
2018-09-16 21:25 Jaguars vs Patriots (-1.5) A Murat
2018-09-17 01:20 Cowboys (41.5) vs Giants (41.5) UNDR Murat
2018-09-17 17:00 Aris Thessaloniki FC vs Levadiakos FC <2.5 lukaku1926
2018-09-17 21:00 Livorno BTS vs Crotone BTS >1.5 calciotips
2018-09-18 01:15 Bears (23.5 Team Total) vs Seahawks OVER Murat
2018-09-18 17:30 FMP vs Mornar A dus@n
2018-09-18 17:30 FMP (-8.5) vs Mornar (+8.5) A dus@n
2018-11-25 20:00 Best in the West - OBOS vs Sandnes Ulf A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Best in the West - OBOS vs Jerv A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Best of the rest vs Brann A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Toppserien - Champions 2018 vs LSK Kvinner A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Viking - Direct promotion 2018 vs No A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Winner (- RBK, Molde, Sarp 08) vs Strømsgodset A mightye



Active leagues

Top tipsters September

1.Wilson+27.69
2.Feri+25.40
3.Lisandri+11.26
4.calciotips+4.32
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7.Alby19810.00
8.azertytrez0.00
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10.basketer0.00

Top Tipster overall

1. Safin+917.63
2. 99022077+853.51
3. mightye+787.27
4. ArbiterE+618.57
5. timtam+462.98
6. xaralas+462.06
7. Genghiz+442.40
8. Macot+399.56
9. Muuki+318.87
10. Code7+317.96

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Latest Forum Posts

Inter - Tottenham 18 Sep

18-09-18 16:32 by sirac

POD 18/09/2018

18-09-18 16:11 by al-gor

MOL Vidi vs BATE Borisov 20/09/2018

18-09-18 16:04 by Spaceboy1981

Greece Super League 1st round 25-27/08/2018

18-09-18 15:19 by MarianoV6

Crvena Zvezda - Napoli 18 Sep

18-09-18 14:16 by Prija

Club Friendly

18-09-18 13:55 by dus@n

POD 17/09/2018

17-09-18 18:50 by KL1NCUNT

Galatasaray - Lokomotiv Moscow 18 Sep

17-09-18 17:21 by turkishtipster

Schalke - Porto 18 Sep

17-09-18 14:38 by FrancisWade

Serbia SuperLeague

17-09-18 06:40 by InsideSport.info

Barcelona - PSV 18 Sep

17-09-18 02:23 by Wilson

Club Brugge - Dortmund 18 Sep

17-09-18 02:22 by Wilson