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Murat statistics

February
Stake 5
Payout 9.70
Profit 4.70
Yield 194 %
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Picks 501
Stake 2493
Payout 2712.35
Profit 219.35
Yield109 %
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Average odds 2.13
Average stake 4.98
Stats (W-V-L) 251-15-235
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MLB: Astros (D.Keuchel) vs. Blue Jays (M.Estrada)


Posted by Murat (2018-06-27 16:59 CET)

I might quite easily regret this, but if I'm not gonna pull the trigger when I calculate an existing value, than what's the point of all this? 
 
First things first, yes, Astros are one of the best teams of the league without a doubt, but they are not invincible, or anything, as they lost four home series so far this year and they are a 24-17 team at home, after all. These series are tied so far, Astros left more men on bases, but for instance Blue Jays hit only 2/15 when runners were on scoring positions. Ok, Morton recorded 13 strikeouts yesterday, but the day before, a very similar lineup hit seven times against Verlander and four of those hits were for extra bases. I can keep going, but I think you got the point, yes Astros are the better team, but Blue Jays with the record of 12-11 at June, belong to a respectable position in the majors. 
 
Anyway both of these teams have minus defenses and even though Astros have a better bullpen in general, if you split to last couple weeks, you'll see that Blue Jays' stuff overcame the sudden disappearance of their closer and several guys started to perform, as the difference between each stuffs is marginal. 
 
Let's come to the starters, as this is where it gets interesting for me. I feel like this is the time to fade Keuchel as big favorites, ok he's coming off two straight good outings, but they were against Royals after all. Before those two games, let's not forget there was a span of three games where he allowed 27 hits and 19 runs in 17 innings, as well. His once mighty slider has minus pitch numbers this year, all of his O-Swing%, O-Contact%, SwStr%, Contact% rates are the worst of his career except the rookie season. 
 
Blue Jays will counter with Estrada, a very well known commodity, who's having one of the best months of his entire major league career, as he's coming off four games in which he allowed total of five runs and he boosted a 26-5 K-BB ratio. I don't know if you know, but for instance his K% is better than Keuchel, or even though he pounds the strike zone more than Keuchel, his contact rate for such pitches is lower than Keuchel.
 
I think it'll be the tenth time I'm repeating that, but Astros are definitely the better side. So, if you don't like these kind of bets, simply stay away from it, but I believe both Astros and especially Keuchel are in the zone of fading as big home favorites, against solid but not spectacular teams with passable pitching staff. 2.5+

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2019-02-18 17:00 A.Mannarino - B.Schnur vs B.Schnur +3,5 A Prusina
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2019-02-18 17:00 M.McDonald - T.H.Fritz vs over 23 H Prusina
2019-02-18 17:00 R.Opelka - T.Sandgren vs over 25,5 H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs Lorenzo Sonego H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 F.Delbonis - M.Jaziri vs over 20,5 H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 G.Pella - J.Sousa vs over 22,5 H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 J.Munar - L.Mayer vs over 22,5 H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 R.Carballes Baena - N.Jarry vs over 22,5 H Prusina
2019-02-19 08:30 Shandong Luneng vs Ha Noi >3.25 Macot
2019-02-19 11:00 Neil Robertson vs Hamza Akbar A Macot
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2019-02-19 15:00 Rubin Kazan (-1,25) AH vs Tobol Kostanay H Macot
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