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Murat statistics

January
Stake 35
Payout 48.05
Profit 13.05
Yield 137 %
Alltime
Picks 499
Stake 2483
Payout 2692.70
Profit 209.70
Yield108 %
More stats
Average odds 2.13
Average stake 4.98
Stats (W-V-L) 249-15-235
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MLB: Mets (J.Vargas) vs. Orioles (A.Cobb)


Posted by Murat (2018-06-05 10:31 CET)

I can sympathy with the relatively low line considering these teams rank bottom seven in runs scored per game list. Things are not brighter if you check near past neither. But I definitely have my reasons to expect this being a high scoring game and I seriously doubt to see such odds again when these pitchers face each other this year. 

Cobb finally recorded a passable start last time out, but that doesn't change him being a 7.91 DRA, 4.66 xFIP and 7.45 ERA on the road pitcher so far this season. These numbers scream for implosion and him coming off a passable start increases the chances him not to repeat it looking to his peripherals, for instance his ridiculous %11.5 strike rate. 

On the other hand, Vargas yet had to exceed five innings in any of his six starts and despite limited amount of innings pitched, he had been a 6.38 DRA and 4.83 xFIP pitcher so far. For instance, only %14.8 of the opposing contacts were rated soft against his pitches, which is an alarmingly low number, as well.

In addition those woes regarding the starting pitchers, Mets' bullpen posted fifth worst numbers so far, whereas Orioles' bullpen started the season on a high note, but as you split last month, or last couple weeks, they ranked at the middle of the bunch. Things are even worse when you check the defensive stats, as Orioles own the league's worst fielding stats, whereas Mets rank third bottom in that category as well. 

So all in all, these are not inspiring teams offensively, for sure. But, the offenses should have the edge against both starting and relieving pitchers, as well as the both teams' defenses.

Citi Field is one of the most pitcher friendly parks around the nation, but even in such parks some high scoring games occur here and there, and that alone is not enough to justify such favorable odds. If you want, take more moderate lines as they pay ok as well, but as you already noticed, I'll chase the bigger prize. 2.3+


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2019-01-20 14:00 Eskisehirspor (+0,25) AH vs Giresunspor H Macot
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2019-01-20 14:30 Huddersfield Town vs Manchester City (-2,25) AH A Macot



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Latest Forum Posts

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