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Murat statistics

November
Stake 80
Payout 78.55
Profit -1.45
Yield 98 %
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Picks 441
Stake 2193
Payout 2368.60
Profit 175.60
Yield108 %
More stats
Average odds 2.15
Average stake 4.97
Stats (W-V-L) 219-11-211
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MLB: Nationals (T.Roark) vs. Phillies (Z.Eflin)


Posted by Murat (2018-06-22 10:45 CET)

I know last several days were disaster, but the biggest sin would be me to give up on the things which brought me fruits and change my tendencies. Last couple days, I chased couple of bad plays, but I rarely take a break, or something, as long as I trust my abilities and I have a clear mind.
 
Anyway, let's keep grinding. 
 
A 40-33 team will host a 39-33 team. Hosts will start with Roark, who at the wrong side of 30's, lost a bit velocity this season and as a result, his xFIP is at the worst mark of his major league career. He allowed three, or more runs in half of the starts this season and the month of June had been specifically brutal as his ERA sits at 6.06. 
 
Visitors will counter with Eflin, who's having his much anticipated breakout season finally. In last three starts, he allowed only four runs in 18.2 innings of work and he won all of those starts. For instance, his xFIP is 0.68 points better than what Roark had so far. His fastball is almost two miles per hour faster this year and all of his breaking stuff is marginally faster as well. His K% is 5 percent higher than Roark, whereas his BB% is 2 percent lower. 
 
Let alone the starters, these teams have quite similar caliber of pens, as the WAR between the units is only 0.1 to the favor of the visitors, but Phillies' unit posted a xFIP of 0.3 points better than Nationals' unit. So, all in all, for me, the pitching edge belongs to the visitors.
 
At the other side of the mound, Nationals made the appropriate batting order change, by moving struggling Harper to the leadoff spot (They are 9-1 in that order), but that didn't change them losing eight of last twelve games. 9-1 is a strong number, but ten games are not the appropriate number of sample size. On the other hand, Phillies are coming to DC, by winning three consecutive series against Rockies, Brewers and Cardinals, not a bad list at all. They won seven of last ten games. 
 
For instance, if you split the stats to last couple weeks, Phillies' lineup produced almost .110 better isolated power and that reflected on slugging percentage being .100 better. Things are more dramatic if you split to last seven days, as these numbers transform to .130 and .150. That is not the ideal size of sample neither, but it gives a proper picture on the offensive form and momentum of the clubhouses.
 
One edge definitely belongs to Nationals, as Phillies own a simply bad defense, but I give both pitching and battings edges to Phillies. So, these teams have almost same records, Nationals are only 18-18 at home, not an intimidating home dominance whatsoever, Phillies own two crucial edges for me and yet, Nationals are favored at such odds. That doesn't make sense. 2.2+  

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Latest Forum Posts

*NOVEMBER* POD 15/11/2018

15-11-18 00:44 by luzernhero

*NOVEMBER* POD 14/11/2018

15-11-18 00:44 by luzernhero

Snooker - Northern Ireland Open 12.11.2018 - 18.11.2018

14-11-18 22:52 by Macot

LIIGA 14.11.2018

14-11-18 21:41 by Bodza

NBA 14.11.2018

14-11-18 17:53 by GeoLogic

*NOVEMBER* POD 13/11/2018

13-11-18 23:59 by Sabelius

POD Standings November 2018

13-11-18 22:00 by Macot

Scotland Premiership 14th-15th September

13-11-18 20:36 by MarianoV6

Romanian friends Re: Astra v Poli Iasi

13-11-18 15:27 by buffalo_rill

US Midterm Elections - Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives

13-11-18 14:46 by striker7

Now playing...(music discussion)

13-11-18 13:55 by Nesquik

Betting in my life right now(bloglike)

13-11-18 13:47 by Nesquik