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Murat statistics

February
Stake 5
Payout 9.70
Profit 4.70
Yield 194 %
Alltime
Picks 501
Stake 2493
Payout 2712.35
Profit 219.35
Yield109 %
More stats
Average odds 2.13
Average stake 4.98
Stats (W-V-L) 251-15-235
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MLB: Orioles (A.Cobb) vs. Mariners (W.LeBlanc)


Posted by Murat (2018-06-27 15:53 CET)

A 23-55 (11-25 at home) team will host a 49-31 (24-17 on the road) team. Hosts will start with Cobb, who is coming off an impressive outing, but he still owns a 6.66 DRA and he still failed to win a game at home park, where he owned so far a hefty 5.92 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Visitors will start with LeBlanc, who nobody expected him to be this good, but numbers are there and they tell, he owns a better DRA than Cobb, his K% is higher and his BB% is lower than Cobb. Batters swung 7 percent more of his pitches outside of the strike zone than Cobb's, he induced 9 perfect more first pitch strikes and couple perfect more swinging strikes. 
 
Visitors have much better bullpen than hosts as well. Mariners' pen owns a better xFIP if you don't split the season stats. You'll see them having better xFIP if you split those stats to last two weeks and one week, as well. And that happened, despite Mariners' staff had to deal with Yankees and Red Sox mostly during that timespan. 
 
The last but not least, if you hadn't guessed already from the records in the first sentence, the visitors have much better offense as well. There is a whooping .04 difference between the SLG% of each line ups if you look to the season stats. Orioles' bats woke up at Atlanta, but in the first two games of this series, Mariners outhit them in each and left eight more guys on the bases. Orioles so far produced fifth lowest runs per games at home, whereas Mariners produced sixth most runs per games on the road. 
 
Last but not least, Mariners own a much better fielding unit as well, as they rank at the middle of the pack, with a meager plus WAR, whereas Orioles rank dead last in that department and the difference of WAR between fielding units of these teams is an incredible 35.8 for crying out loud.
 
So from my perspective, visitors are heading to this game by owning every possible relevant edges, yet they are barely favored in this one, which is not enough. 1.8+ 

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