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Murat statistics

November
Stake 80
Payout 78.55
Profit -1.45
Yield 98 %
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Picks 441
Stake 2193
Payout 2368.60
Profit 175.60
Yield108 %
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Average odds 2.15
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MLB: Reds (L.Castillo) vs. White Sox (J.Shields)


Posted by Murat (2018-07-02 21:58 CET)

I'm very well aware of Reds being one of the hottest teams of the majors, them having contributions from top to bottom of their lineup, they are coming off two dominant straight wins against division leading Brewers, etc etc. But at the end of the day, they are a 36-48 team and they are the second biggest favorite of today's card in this interleague match up. 

Fading bad teams as huge favorites is a profitable proposition, there is no doubt about it, but there are more reasons if you care. For instance, Reds will start with Castillo, who allowed 20 runs in 25.1 innings pitched at five starts in June. White Sox' starter Shields is not world beater, or such at the age of 33, but in the same month of June, he managed to complete 6+ innings in five of his six starts and in those five games, he allowed 14 runs in 33 innings. 

So obviously, you can't say Reds will have starter edge. Both bullpens are 4.00+ xFIP units and both stands around the middle of the pack. Reds have a better fielding unit and much hotter bats. 

So to sum up, a bad team will host a worse team. The bad team has couple edges, but on paper, they don't have the pitching edge. I didn't research, but the bad team had never been favored at such odds this season and coming off two big wins against division leading Brewers, they have to focus for an interleague match up as huge favorites. And this interleague series is sandwiched between two divisional series, by the way. This is an ultimate fading spot for me. No way Reds can be 1.5ish favorites against any major league team without having an absolute pitching edge. 2.6+


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Latest Forum Posts

*NOVEMBER* POD 15/11/2018

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LIIGA 14.11.2018

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*NOVEMBER* POD 13/11/2018

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13-11-18 22:00 by Macot

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