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Murat statistics

February
Stake 5
Payout 9.70
Profit 4.70
Yield 194 %
Alltime
Picks 501
Stake 2493
Payout 2712.35
Profit 219.35
Yield109 %
More stats
Average odds 2.13
Average stake 4.98
Stats (W-V-L) 251-15-235
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MLB: Reds (L.Castillo) vs. White Sox (J.Shields)


Posted by Murat (2018-07-02 21:58 CET)

I'm very well aware of Reds being one of the hottest teams of the majors, them having contributions from top to bottom of their lineup, they are coming off two dominant straight wins against division leading Brewers, etc etc. But at the end of the day, they are a 36-48 team and they are the second biggest favorite of today's card in this interleague match up. 

Fading bad teams as huge favorites is a profitable proposition, there is no doubt about it, but there are more reasons if you care. For instance, Reds will start with Castillo, who allowed 20 runs in 25.1 innings pitched at five starts in June. White Sox' starter Shields is not world beater, or such at the age of 33, but in the same month of June, he managed to complete 6+ innings in five of his six starts and in those five games, he allowed 14 runs in 33 innings. 

So obviously, you can't say Reds will have starter edge. Both bullpens are 4.00+ xFIP units and both stands around the middle of the pack. Reds have a better fielding unit and much hotter bats. 

So to sum up, a bad team will host a worse team. The bad team has couple edges, but on paper, they don't have the pitching edge. I didn't research, but the bad team had never been favored at such odds this season and coming off two big wins against division leading Brewers, they have to focus for an interleague match up as huge favorites. And this interleague series is sandwiched between two divisional series, by the way. This is an ultimate fading spot for me. No way Reds can be 1.5ish favorites against any major league team without having an absolute pitching edge. 2.6+


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Active (non-settled) picks from Murat

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Active (non-settled) picks

Kickoff (CET) Match Pick Tipster
2019-02-18 17:00 A.Mannarino - B.Schnur vs B.Schnur +3,5 A Prusina
2019-02-18 17:00 J.Jung - S.Johnson vs J.Jung +3,5 H Prusina
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2019-02-18 17:00 R.Opelka - T.Sandgren vs over 25,5 H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs Lorenzo Sonego H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 F.Delbonis - M.Jaziri vs over 20,5 H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 G.Pella - J.Sousa vs over 22,5 H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 J.Munar - L.Mayer vs over 22,5 H Prusina
2019-02-18 19:00 R.Carballes Baena - N.Jarry vs over 22,5 H Prusina
2019-02-19 08:30 Shandong Luneng vs Ha Noi >3.25 Macot
2019-02-19 11:00 Neil Robertson vs Hamza Akbar A Macot
2019-02-19 11:00 Robert Milkins vs Eden Sharav A Macot
2019-02-19 15:00 Rubin Kazan (-1,25) AH vs Tobol Kostanay H Macot
2019-02-19 15:30 Robbie Williams vs Tian Pengfei H Macot
2019-11-30 18:00 Eliteserien 2019 Relegation vs Strømsgodset (incl Playoff) H mightye



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