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Murat statistics

July
Stake 10
Payout 11.40
Profit 1.40
Yield 114 %
Alltime
Picks 299
Stake 1483
Payout 1624.75
Profit 141.75
Yield110 %
More stats
Average odds 2.17
Average stake 4.96
Stats (W-V-L) 149-8-142
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MLB: Reds (L.Castillo) vs. White Sox (J.Shields)


Posted by Murat (2018-07-02 21:58 CET)

I'm very well aware of Reds being one of the hottest teams of the majors, them having contributions from top to bottom of their lineup, they are coming off two dominant straight wins against division leading Brewers, etc etc. But at the end of the day, they are a 36-48 team and they are the second biggest favorite of today's card in this interleague match up. 

Fading bad teams as huge favorites is a profitable proposition, there is no doubt about it, but there are more reasons if you care. For instance, Reds will start with Castillo, who allowed 20 runs in 25.1 innings pitched at five starts in June. White Sox' starter Shields is not world beater, or such at the age of 33, but in the same month of June, he managed to complete 6+ innings in five of his six starts and in those five games, he allowed 14 runs in 33 innings. 

So obviously, you can't say Reds will have starter edge. Both bullpens are 4.00+ xFIP units and both stands around the middle of the pack. Reds have a better fielding unit and much hotter bats. 

So to sum up, a bad team will host a worse team. The bad team has couple edges, but on paper, they don't have the pitching edge. I didn't research, but the bad team had never been favored at such odds this season and coming off two big wins against division leading Brewers, they have to focus for an interleague match up as huge favorites. And this interleague series is sandwiched between two divisional series, by the way. This is an ultimate fading spot for me. No way Reds can be 1.5ish favorites against any major league team without having an absolute pitching edge. 2.6+


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Active (non-settled) picks for MLB

Kickoff (CET) Match Pick Tipster
2018-07-03 00:10 Reds (L.Castillo) vs White Sox (J.Shields) A Murat
2018-07-04 00:05 Yankees (D.German) vs Braves (S.Newcomb) A Murat
2018-07-04 00:10 Reds (A.DeSclafani) vs White Sox (L.Giolito) A Murat
2018-07-04 03:10 Mariners (W.LeBlanc) (-1 AH) vs Angels (A.Heaney) H Murat
2018-07-04 21:10 Mariners (M.Leake) (-1 AH) vs Angels (G.Richards) H Murat
2018-07-07 00:10 Indians (C.Carrasco) vs Athletics (P.Blackburn) A Murat
2018-07-07 19:20 Cubs (T.Chatwood) vs Reds (M.Harvey) >9.5 Murat
2018-07-07 21:05 Pirates (J.Taillon) vs Phillies (J.Arrieta) A Murat
2018-07-08 18:10 Tigers (M.Fulmer) (-1 AH) vs Rangers (A.Bibens-Drikx) H Murat
2018-07-09 21:10 Mets (Z.Wheeler) vs Phillies (Z.Eflin) <7.5 Murat
2018-07-11 03:05 Angels (G.Richards) vs Mariners (M.Leake) A Murat
2018-07-12 01:40 Rockies (G.Marquez) vs Diamondbacks (S.Miller) A Murat
2018-07-12 19:10 Astros (C.Morton) vs Athletics (T.Cahill) >8.5 Murat
2018-07-14 21:10 Cardinals (J.Flaherty) vs Reds (L.Castillo) A Murat
2018-07-15 18:10 Mets (C.Oswalt) vs Nationals (J.Hellickson) H Murat
2018-07-15 19:15 Cardinals (M.Mikolas) vs Reds (A.DeSclafani) A Murat

Active (non-settled) picks from Murat

Kickoff (CET) Match Pick Tipster
2018-07-03 00:10 Reds (L.Castillo) vs White Sox (J.Shields) A Murat
2018-07-04 00:05 Yankees (D.German) vs Braves (S.Newcomb) A Murat
2018-07-04 00:10 Reds (A.DeSclafani) vs White Sox (L.Giolito) A Murat
2018-07-04 03:10 Mariners (W.LeBlanc) (-1 AH) vs Angels (A.Heaney) H Murat
2018-07-04 21:10 Mariners (M.Leake) (-1 AH) vs Angels (G.Richards) H Murat
2018-07-07 00:10 Indians (C.Carrasco) vs Athletics (P.Blackburn) A Murat
2018-07-07 19:20 Cubs (T.Chatwood) vs Reds (M.Harvey) >9.5 Murat
2018-07-07 21:05 Pirates (J.Taillon) vs Phillies (J.Arrieta) A Murat
2018-07-08 18:10 Tigers (M.Fulmer) (-1 AH) vs Rangers (A.Bibens-Drikx) H Murat
2018-07-09 21:10 Mets (Z.Wheeler) vs Phillies (Z.Eflin) <7.5 Murat
2018-07-11 03:05 Angels (G.Richards) vs Mariners (M.Leake) A Murat
2018-07-12 01:40 Rockies (G.Marquez) vs Diamondbacks (S.Miller) A Murat
2018-07-12 19:10 Astros (C.Morton) vs Athletics (T.Cahill) >8.5 Murat
2018-07-14 21:10 Cardinals (J.Flaherty) vs Reds (L.Castillo) A Murat
2018-07-15 18:10 Mets (C.Oswalt) vs Nationals (J.Hellickson) H Murat
2018-07-15 19:15 Cardinals (M.Mikolas) vs Reds (A.DeSclafani) A Murat

Active (non-settled) picks

Kickoff (CET) Match Pick Tipster
2018-06-10 15:00 World Cup 2018 vs Neymar - Over 3.5 >3.5 Wilson
2018-07-03 00:10 Reds (L.Castillo) vs White Sox (J.Shields) A Murat
2018-07-04 00:05 Yankees (D.German) vs Braves (S.Newcomb) A Murat
2018-07-04 00:10 Reds (A.DeSclafani) vs White Sox (L.Giolito) A Murat
2018-07-04 03:10 Mariners (W.LeBlanc) (-1 AH) vs Angels (A.Heaney) H Murat
2018-07-04 17:00 Arna Bjørnar vs Avaldsnes <3.5 mightye
2018-07-04 21:10 Mariners (M.Leake) (-1 AH) vs Angels (G.Richards) H Murat
2018-07-05 04:00 RSL (0) vs Kansas (0) H Prija
2018-07-06 20:00 Brazil vs Belgium >2.5 Wilson
2018-07-07 00:10 Indians (C.Carrasco) vs Athletics (P.Blackburn) A Murat
2018-07-07 10:00 Raikkonen vs wins fp3 H Norbertinho
2018-07-07 10:00 Raikkonen vs Vettel H Norbertinho
2018-07-07 10:00 Raikkonen vs to win fp3 H Norbertinho
2018-07-07 14:00 Hulkenberg vs Grosjean H Norbertinho
2018-07-07 14:00 Raikkonen vs Vettel H Norbertinho
2018-07-07 14:00 Raikkonen vs qualifying winner H Norbertinho
2018-07-07 14:00 Raikkonen vs Vettel H Norbertinho
2018-07-07 14:00 Sauber vs McLaren H Norbertinho
2018-07-07 19:20 Cubs (T.Chatwood) vs Reds (M.Harvey) >9.5 Murat
2018-07-07 20:00 Russia vs Croatia A Wilson
2018-07-07 21:05 Pirates (J.Taillon) vs Phillies (J.Arrieta) A Murat
2018-07-08 01:00 Philadelphia (0) vs Atlanta (0) H Prija
2018-07-08 01:30 LA Galaxy vs Columbus >2.75 Prija
2018-07-08 17:00 Mordovia Saransk vs Gaz Metan <2.5 Genghiz
2018-07-08 18:10 Tigers (M.Fulmer) (-1 AH) vs Rangers (A.Bibens-Drikx) H Murat
2018-07-09 21:10 Mets (Z.Wheeler) vs Phillies (Z.Eflin) <7.5 Murat
2018-07-11 03:05 Angels (G.Richards) vs Mariners (M.Leake) A Murat
2018-07-12 01:40 Rockies (G.Marquez) vs Diamondbacks (S.Miller) A Murat
2018-07-12 19:10 Astros (C.Morton) vs Athletics (T.Cahill) >8.5 Murat
2018-07-14 17:00 England vs Belgium >3.5 Macot
2018-07-14 21:10 Cardinals (J.Flaherty) vs Reds (L.Castillo) A Murat
2018-07-15 13:00 Grorud vs Hønefoss <3.0 mightye
2018-07-15 18:10 Mets (C.Oswalt) vs Nationals (J.Hellickson) H Murat
2018-07-15 19:15 Cardinals (M.Mikolas) vs Reds (A.DeSclafani) A Murat
2018-07-19 17:00 Viitorul -2 vs Racing Union H Genghiz
2018-11-25 20:00 Best in the West - OBOS vs Sandnes Ulf A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Best in the West - OBOS vs Jerv A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Best of the rest vs Brann A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Toppserien - Champions 2018 vs LSK Kvinner A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Viking - Direct promotion 2018 vs No A mightye
2018-11-25 20:00 Winner (- RBK, Molde, Sarp 08) vs Strømsgodset A mightye



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