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Murat statistics

January
Stake 35
Payout 48.05
Profit 13.05
Yield 137 %
Alltime
Picks 499
Stake 2483
Payout 2692.70
Profit 209.70
Yield108 %
More stats
Average odds 2.13
Average stake 4.98
Stats (W-V-L) 249-15-235
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MLB: Tigers (M.Fulmer) (-1 AH) vs. Blue Jays (A.Sanchez)


Posted by Murat (2018-06-03 11:56 CET)

I'll try to explain the situation as objective as I can be and than, we'll decide what should be the fair odds together. 

- Home team is 28-30 (19-12 at home), which won eight of last ten games, including all three games of this series. Road team is 25-33 (13-16 on the road), which lost thirteen of last fifteen. 

- The starting pitcher for the home team owns both better DRA and xFIP than his compatriot. Both of these young starters are having very underwhelming and disappointing seasons, as they both were supposed to step up their games in order to proove if they can evolve being borderline All Star caliber starters, but at least, Fulmer is the one with slightly better numbers and as Sanchez had a terrible month of May, Fulmer has very slightly better form as well. 

- Tigers' bullpen owns slightly better xFIP and WAR when compared to Blue Jays' bullpen, which keeps missing its closer due to lengthy suspension. Tigers own eleventh best defensive stats so far, whereas Blue Jays rank the fifth worst of all majors in that department. 

- Tigers welcomed back Cabrera, one of the more important bats of the lineup couple days ago, as he's easing to game condition, whereas Blue Jays will keep missing Donaldson, the far most important bat of their limited lineup and Hernandez, one of the pleasant surprises of this miserable season, left the game yesterday and expected to miss one, or two games. 

So, what should be the fair odds than considering all the things above? For me this should have been a 1.75-2.15 game, yet Tigers are only very slight favorites, which I definitely don't agree. I'll take smallest possible spread to chase bigger odds, you decide which to take according to your style and taste. 2.1+


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2019-01-20 10:15 Clement Noel vs Alexis Pinturault A Macot
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2019-01-20 12:30 William II vs NAC Breda >2.75 Macot
2019-01-20 14:00 Eskisehirspor (+0,25) AH vs Giresunspor H Macot
2019-01-20 14:00 Kampala City vs AS Otoho H Wilson
2019-01-20 14:30 Huddersfield Town vs Manchester City (-2,25) AH A Macot



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