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Murat statistics

January
Stake 40
Payout 58.00
Profit 18.00
Yield 145 %
Alltime
Picks 500
Stake 2488
Payout 2702.65
Profit 214.65
Yield109 %
More stats
Average odds 2.13
Average stake 4.98
Stats (W-V-L) 250-15-235
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MLB: Tigers (R.Carpenter) vs. Angels (A.Heaney)


Posted by Murat (2018-05-31 13:30 CET)

As you already noticed, my approach is all about the numbers, so let's try to navigate through the reasons why Tigers being such underdogs at home park is ridiculous:

Ok, Angels own Trout, the best active baseball player of the universe, Heaney will start for them, who has kind of handsome stats if you don't like to dig deeper, they have a winning record of 30-26, but these are not enough to justify them as 1.4ish favorites on the road, because;

Heaney might look like having handsome numbers, but his DRA of 5.00 screams that he had been reasonably "lucky" so far. Trout is rolling as he always do, but it doesn't change the fact that Angels own an extreme top heavy lineup and bunch of supposedly important bats, who are fairly cold recently. After all, they are a team which lost four of last six, including two of three games in this series, as well. 

On the other hand, Tigers will start with Carpenter, who failed to post a passable start, yet. But, the guy posted quite good numbers in the minors in recent years and his advanced stats were suggesting that he'll deliver better numbers in majors, as well. So, a better than so far start must be on the horizon for the rookie lefty. His team won five of last seven and generated 4+ runs in of five of last seven games, that's why I like Carpenter's chances at least to tread the water against not an intimidating lineup. 

These teams have similarly bad bullpens and similarly above average defenses, so it's hard to give an edge to anyone in those departments. 

So all in all, Tigers should have the offense and form edges. Heaney is the better pitcher of the starters for sure, but his time is running out to avoid a bad start, whereas Carpenter can go only up after first two starts. The other departments are irrelevant on paper as well, as they posted similar numbers so far. 

I would have understood if Angels were reasonably healthy favorites, but no way I can understand them being such huge favorites, the biggest of today's card even. 2.7+


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2019-01-21 20:45 Bolton Wanderers vs WBA (-0,75) AH A Macot
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2019-01-21 22:00 Granada -0.75 vs Elche H Mantis
2019-01-22 09:50 Melbourne City vs WS Wanderers >3.0 Macot
2019-02-04 00:30 Rams vs Patriots (-2) A Murat



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Latest Forum Posts

A-League - 15-20 Jan '19

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21-01-19 03:19 by Quill

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20-01-19 22:25 by Macot

2019 Masters Snooker

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AFC Asian Cup 05/01/2019 - 01/02/2019

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