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Norway 1.div: Best in the West - OBOS vs. Jerv


Posted by mightye (2018-03-28 11:30 CET)

Pick only valid after full season concluded, does not include playoffs. Only normal league season

Less then one week left until the big season premiere for OBOS-Ligaen 2018.
Aalesund seem like a clear promotion favorite, Sogndal will fight in the top as well. Viking "should" be up there as a newly relegated Eliteserie side, but my season bets will go against them in 2018.

Former big club Viking ended as the bottom side in Eliteserien 2017 (6-6-18), and the relegation have been in the cards for many seasons. Vikings economical struggles have been an issue for a long period of time, and one by one their profiles have left Stavanger.
Coach Ian Burchnall got fired, even though he created a hard working side of the leftovers from the many seasons of cutting budgets/selling players, last season.
For this season, they have signed Bjarne Berntsen as new coach (coached Viking in the early 90s). Hard to tell what hes capable of, 20 years after his former period as coach in the club, and 9 years since he was coach for the Norway International Womens team.

Viking have suffered some big losses in their latest pre-season games: 1-3 Start, 2-6 Jerv, and they started their pre-season by losing 0-3 against "little brother" Bryne.

Key defender Kristoffer Haugen (Def 27/3 - Molde), Andreas Nordvik (Def 8/1 - Fredericia), Jose Manuel Cruz (Def 5/0 - Merida), Sime Gregov (Def 10/0 - Tractor), Herman Kleppa (Mid 0/0 - Sandnes Ulf), Tore Andre Skimmeland (Att - Jerv) and George Green (Att 7/1 - Nuneaton) have left.

Rolf Daniel Vikstøl (Def - Start), Leo Skiri Østigaard (Def - Molde, loan deal), Tord Johnsen Salte (Def - Lyon, loan deal), Markus Nakkim (Def - Vålerenga, loan deal), Viljar Vevatne (Def - Sandnes Ulf), Jordan Hallam (Mid - Sheffield United, loan deal) and Zlatko Tripic (Mid/Att - Sheriff) have been signed.

Viking have kept key players young talents like Ryerson and Bringaker, that could be the key players that will turn Viking into a top side this season. That being said, the rest of the team does not look like clear promotion favorites in its current state. First choice striker Tommy Høiland has always had the potential to be a top scorer at Eliteserie and OBOS-Liga level, but he can also be a moody player, that could just as well be sent off, as scoring goals.
Once again regulars have left the gates at Viking Stadion since last season, and Bosman players and loan deal players have been added to replace them.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jerv (8-8-14) have been close to promotion a couple of seasons, but they disappointed a lot and ended at 13th position in OBOS-Ligaen 2017.

Øystein Øvretveit (Kee 1/0), Luke Ferreira (Mid/Att - USA), Aram Khalili (Att - Bryne) Tore Andre Skimmeland (Att - Viking) and Isac Lidberg (Att - Start, loan deal) have been signed.

Stian Christensen (Kee 2/0 - Out of contract), Nils Petter Andersen (Def 22/2 - Fløy), Christopher McConnagher (Mid 17/1 - Retired), Erixon Danso (Mid 25/2 - Sandnes Ulf), Idelino Gomez (Att 11/2 - Boavista, loan deal expired), Jakob Toft (Att 14/4 - Out of contract) and David Akintola (Att 11/0 - Midtjylland, Loan deal expired) have all left.

The board members have finally decided to replace the natural grass at Levermyr with artificial turf in front of this season. The bad natural grass conditions in the end of the season may have costed them a promotion in the playoff finals against Start and Stabæk in 2015 and 2016, and with better pitch in the start of the season, they may have reached direct promotion spots.

Jerv were undefeated in their 5 latest pre-season games, and they defeated Viking 6-2 in their last pre-season friendly before the season premiere.
The pitch conditions may take some time to adapt to, but Jervs gameplay will normally benefit a quick artificial pitch.
Their first eleven look like a clear upper half side, and with some luck with injuries, Jerv may find themselves fighting for promotion/playoff also in OBOS-Ligaen 2018.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sandnes Ulf (14-9-7) have been among the promotion favorites the latest seasons of OBOS-Ligaen, but they have struggled to deliver steady performances during the entire season.
Many changes in the squad this season:

Deniss Komelciks (Kee - Brodd), Herman Kleppa (Def - Viking), Tapio Heikkila (Def - Start), Akinsola Akinyemi (Def - Fredrikstad), Daniel Edvardsen (Def - Bodø/Glimt), Ari Jonsson (Def - HB Torshavn), Erixon Danso (Mid/Att - Jerv), "Kachi" (Mid/Att - Sarpsborg 08) and Niels Vorthoren (Mid/Att - Start) have been signed.

Jonas Høidahl (Kee 0/0 - Out of contract), Egil Selvik (Kee 3/0 - Nest-Sotra - Loan deal), Mads Nielsen (Def 30/1 - Out of contract), Kenneth Sola (Def 28/1 - Retired), Jørgen Olsen (Def 8/0 - Egersund), Nicolai Geertsen (Def 29/0 - Out of contract), Viljar Vevatne (Def/Mid 30/1 - Viking), Roy Miljeteig (Mid/Att 27/1 - Egersund), Oddbjørn Skartun (Att 29/4 - Out of contract) and Kjell Rune Sellin (Att 30/11 - Fredrikstad) have all left.

Sandnes Ulf must be rated as a outsider this season. Many changes in the squad, but their defense is clearly improved imo.
Its obvious that their defensive play, and maybe new tactics, have been the main focus this pre-season, and we havent seen as many goals as were used to from the blue and whites.
If they keep top scorer Eriksen up front, and succeed in improving their defensive play, Sandnes Ulf should be rated a playoff candidate, and maybe a dark horse in OBOS-Ligaen 2018.

Unibet offer odds on "Best in the West (OBOS-Ligaen 2018):

Viking (1.40)
Sandnes Ulf (4.00)
Jerv (12.00)
Åsane (21.00)
Nest-Sotra (51.00)

I believe it will take some time before Viking will fully turn the tide from the 2017 season, and Aalesund and Sogndal are the clear favorites for the direct promotion spots.
I can see Jerv and Sandnes Ulf ending at playoff spots if they succeed with their new approaches (Jerv - changed from natural grass to artificial pitch, Sandnes Ulf - many defensive improvements, kept top goalscorer), and Viking should not be 1.40 favorites against them in their current state imo.

"Best in the West" (OBOS-Ligaen 2018):

Viking (1.40)
Sandnes Ulf (4.00)
Jerv (12.00)
Åsane (21.00)
Nest-Sotra (51.00)

Pick: Sandnes Ulf, 5/10 stakes, odds 4@Unibet.
Pick: Jerv, 5/10 stakes, odds 12@Unibet.

Good luck!


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