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Odds mathematics



Odds mathematics

This page should cover the most common formula needed for punters. Punters don't need to memorize these formulas , but it's good to have an understanding of how these things work. The more you know, the better your chances.


Odds calculation:

    1 
------
X
where x is probability in decimals


Value determination


Odds x Probability (%) 
------------------------ > 1.0
100
where Probablility is your subjective opinion of this match.



Stake determination:

Total stakes x system odds
---------------------------
Odds


Permutations:

       A ! 
--------------
B! x (A-B)!

(example: 5! =5x4x3x2x1)

System odds:

                        

           1
----------------------------
1 1 1
------ + ------ + ------
H-odds D-odds A-odds


Kellys formula:


S = P - (1- P) 
-----------
     odds - 1

P = decimal probability for win
S = stake to bet on this match


Permutations explained:
How many triples are there in a selection of 5 matches ? How many quadruples within a selection of 10 matches ?

In order to calculate this, use the permutation formula in the table above. A! means that you have to multiply A with all the numbers less than A until your reach 1. If A= 5, this would mean: 5x4x3x2x1 =120


System odds explained:
If you are considering a match but can't decide wether to bet on a home win or a draw, then you can bet on both results by using the System odds forumla in the table above.
If we say that the home odds is 2.0 and the draw odds is 3.2, the calulation gives the result 1.23.The system odds is 1.23. If you divide the system odds with the home odds, you will find the stake to place on the home win. Do the same with the draw-odds to find the stake for the bet on the draw. 1.23/2.0 gives 0.615. This means that you should place 61.5% of your total bet on this match on the home win. The rest (38.5%) should be placed on the draw. By betting this way, you are ensured 23% payoff as long as the match either ends with a home win or a draw.


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