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Cross country: Womens World Cup Overall vs. Jessica Diggins to win


Posted by mightye (2021-11-22 11:01 CET)

Sunday 27.11.2021 Overall World Cup 2021/22 Women - Winner

Winter sports - Cross-Country Skiing

Deadline: 10:00 CET

Betsafe/Nordicbet offer odds on the Womens World Cup Overall standings for the 2021/22 season, and its not surprising that Therese Johaug is rated as a clear favorite to win (1.50 as I write this).
Therese Johaug looked very well prepared for the Olympic season at Beitostolen this weekend, and shes on track for reaching her main goal this season, claiming individual gold medals in Beijing 2022.
She has stated in pre-season interviews that she is likely to skip Tour De Ski 2021/22, in order to fully prepare for the Beijing Olympics, and this is the key for my World Cup overall bets.

The winner of Tour De Ski 2021/22 gets 400 overall points, and even ending 2nd will give 320 points (plus the points youll get for each stage).
If Johaug win all individual distance races this season, except for the Tour De Ski events, she will end up with lower score than Jessica Diggins reached when she won the World Cup overall last season (including winning Tour De Ski 2020/21).

That brings the question, can Jessica Diggins (USA) perform as steady in the top 10 as she did last season, now in a Olympic season?
Well, the latest seasons, the American side have been participating in most World Cup races, no matter if Olympic Games or World Championships are the same season.
Many skiiers are already openly saying they will choose to skip Tour De Ski in their Olympic Games preparations, and most interestingly for Diggins is that some key Swedish sprinters (Jonna Sundling is likely to skip, Linn Svahn is recovering from long term injury, and will most likely miss it, Maja Dahlqvist doubtful) are likely to skip the Tour. With two Sprint events in the Tour, Diggins is one of few overall skiers that can fight in the top in these sprints, and the less favorites against, the more her chances increases in the overall at top form.
She often participates at Sprints in normal World Cup events as well, claiming points while Johaug, Karlsson and the rest only focus on the distance races.

Frida Karlsson (Sweden) is the big outsider. She defeated Ebba Andersson and the rest of the Swedish opponents with ease at the 10 km Classic and the 10 km Free Style this weekend, and even though we have seen what shes capable of in big occations, we have never really seen her completing a consistent World Cup season due to injuries and setbacks.
Karlsson has stated that participation in Tour De Ski is likely, and even though there is two Sprints in this Tour, I see her fighting for the win if she completes the Tour without injuries/sickness. (Karlsson impressed and ended 4th at the Free Technique Sprint in Tour De Ski last season)
She has proved good form a week before the World Cup races starts, and she is capable of ending top 3 in all individual distance races at her best.

There are several other candidates to fight in the top of the leaderboards this season, Ebba Andersson, Natalia Nepryaeva, Tatiana Sorina, Heidi Weng, Krista Parmakoski are a few of them. The question are their priorities in front of the Olympics, Tour De Ski or not, and also the contests in Les Rousses and Planica may be skipped the last month before the Olympics by a few.
Recent seasons, only the American and the Russian top skiiers participate in pretty much all events (5 of the 6 highest ranked skiiers last season were American and Russian skiiers), and if also Tour De Ski is skipped by their competitors (to prepare for the Beijing Olympics), the World Cup overall may be 2nd priority for their main opponents also in 2021/22.

This is long shot bets, but If Diggins or/and Karlsson deliver solid performances over time, they can reach higher than Johaug (if she skips the Tour, as planned).

Betsafe and Nordicbet offer these bets, as of now.

Overall World Cup 2021/22 Women - Winner:

Pick: Jessica Diggins (USA), 5/10 stakes, odds 6@Betsafe.
Pick: Frida Karlsson (Sweden), 5/10 stakes, odds 6.50@Betsafe.

Good luck!


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