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Average odds 3.18
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Greece: Xanthi vs. Kavala +0.25


Posted by xaralas (2010-12-09 14:52 CET)

Opening odds were in the 1.90 region, but we have a tendency towards Xanthi, that gives us even better odds now. I won't wait for a possible better improvement for the odds, in my view, there is enough value to try as it is. And for what it is worth, I rate as fair price for this line, odds about 1.80-1.85, that I expect to be the odds to land in Sunday, when the game will take place.

Why did odds on Xanthi drop? Cause they have a good run at home, cause when someone sees a h2h with almost all games going with the respective host, they think something fishy is going on and they give 3 for 3 points each season, etc. The truth is that Xanthi has far more points than they deserve right now, being a team that has really got lucky and the standings with some many teams so close in points can be deceiving. Xanthi's home games, could only have been worse. 1-0 vs Panserraikos, would be an away win the visitors were more focused while the game was on 0-0, but if when they conceded, they missed terror chances to equalise. Xanthi also is flattered by 1-1 vs Panionios and by 2-2 vs Iraklis, where they were worse than their opponents. They keep having trouble in the back with constant chances in the left and right back positions, while they get no goals from the striker, that chances frequently too. For the fishy h2h, all I can say, is that they only had last season's game in this decade. Apart from that, you can to go back to 2000 or further than that. Yeah, they could be fishy games then, but who cares.

Kalava gets back 3 very very important players for this game, Onwuachi, Cardozo and Abdun, all suspended vs Olympiakos, where team could even upset the visitors against the odds. They had 1 bad game away from home so far and 5 good ones, losing only to Panserraikos and having 2 wins already and 3 draws. They are of course a much better team than Xanthi and they got a stable defence and keeper to go with it. There is a doubt about the guy that will lead the attack, as Ogbeche is suspended, while Darcheville is doubtful, but Onwuach could do the trick without any problem.

Bet wins in 2 results and I will gladly take a good early bet for odds that I would consider down to 1.90, to be honest. I also took Kavala's draw no bet @ 2.50 (365,WHill).
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