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Montenegro: England (-1.5) vs. Montenegro


Posted by Mad_dog (2013-10-09 20:12 CET)

I am absoultely convinced in this bet and since the odds are out I can't believe that the martket hasn't changed much with the latest news coming from Montenegrin side. 

England are only one point ahead of Ukraine and Montenegro, and "Albion" will have two home games against "Falcons" and Poland. On the other side, Montenegro are guests at Wembley and in Warsaw, so there aren't much chances that Brnovic's side will get that second spot. We are all very aware that England always lacks the quality when compared to other top sides of the world, but no one has managed to identify the cause. However, they always qualify for big things, this way or another. Now, I believe they will do a bit better than usual, and there are some reasons for that. First one is Daniel Sturridge. Liverpool's striker is in top form, and he is the best scorer in English Premier League. They don't have any bigger missings except Ashley Cole, but I believe that Baines is also a very good player and Cole's missing won't be felt. 

Second reason would be the big problems in Montenegrin team. Just two weeks ago, when he published the list of called-up players, Brnovic said that for the first time since he is the manager, he could count on all his palyers. And now, he can't figure out which 11 will face England on Friday. Mirko Vucinic, absolutely key player of this team, is injured and out for a month. He's not even with the team. Marko Basa, commander of defence and best player in that part of the field is also 100% out because of injury. First keeper, Mladen Bozovic is also out. Stevan Jovetic has an injury and it is yet to be seen if he will play on Friday. 

Now, what does Brnovic have to play with? Poleksic between the posts, keeper who is without an official match for 3 (yes, three) years. Defence with Dzudovic on CB, an old player who can't start a match in Spartak Nalchik (club near the bottom of Russian second league). Milan Jovanovic, left back, who have barely managed to find a club and has played 2 or 3 games for a club in Bulgaria. In the middle we have another unbelievable thing. Nikola Drincic, a man who doesn't have a club since he was "sacked" from Krasnodar. Among known names, there are Savic from Fiorentina, and Damjanovic from Seoul. I repeat, Jovetic is a big question for the game.

So, Montenegro will probably be playing with the worst line up in last couple of years. The players are in really bad condition and there is no one whose form could be a bright thing in this situation. 

England won't rush, that's for sure. But I believe that even if they underetimate Montenegro, they will be able to score some goals and get an easy win. They will be playing against a poor team, highly motivated but a team that lacks quality. What's more important, I expect Montenegrin players to lack fitness, as they are not playing much in their clubs. 

I would go for even bigger handicap, but this one I rate as sure thing, as a banker. Personally, I took much bigger lines as I expect a 4 or 5-0 here. Good luck!


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