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Montenegro: Montenegro vs. England


Posted by Mad_dog (2013-03-24 20:21 CET)

I am looking at the odds and can't figure out why they are this high. After the expected "under" in Moldova, I will be betting against my country this time. I really believe this is one of the best picks recently. 

Montenegro are group leaders with 13 points, 2 more than England and 8 more than Ukraine and Poland. But it has to be known that these first two sides have played both games against San Marino, unlike the others. So, without the points against by far the weakest side in the group, the table says: Montenegro 7, England 5, Ukraine 5, Poland 5. So, now there is clear picture and you can see that all the squads are in the game for those first two places. In addition, Ukraine and Poland have played one game against England while Montenegro will match them for the first time on Tuesday. I am writing all of this just to prove that bookmakers are overestimating Brnovic's side. Montenegro surely are a good team and have not won in Kiev by case, but putting odds this high on England to win is very wrong. All the euphoria about being the leaders of the group made things very difficult for "Falcons" and that was obvious in Chisinau. Montenegro did not deserve to win that game, Moldova created more chances, especially in the first half. To be honest, guests played with 10 players for 30 minutes as Pekovic got sent off. But the truth is, Montenegro had really big problems against a really poor side. Nikola Drincic and Branko Boskovic missed that match due to injuries and will miss this one also, and Drincic is key midfielder for Montenegro. In addition, his partner in the middle, Milorad Pekovic is suspended, just like Savo Pavicevic, right full back. This will make problems for Brnovic, as he will have to put slow Dzudovic as central defender, while Savic will go on the right side. In the middle, there should be either Novakovic, who is not a player of great calibre, or Vukcevic, who is in really bad form and who is not playing regularly in his club. In the end, match in Moldova really tired the players, as all of them have to give 100% until the final whistle. 

That wasn't the case with Roy Hodgson's side. England are coming into this match after a "light training" against San Marino and easy 8-0 win away from home. They are coming to Podgorica without Wallcott, Wilshire, Terry and Cahill. But there is plenty of great players, so I doubt Hodgson is nearly concerned about the missings as Brnovic is, on the other side. All the players, especially Steven Gerrard, are well aware that this game won't be easy at all, as they have already underestimated Montenegro for two times, and got only two points from those matches. But after all, England plays far better at the moment compared to the picture we used to watch in past few years and I think fans in Podgorica will see it also. 

Neither the weather or the pitch will suit to the two sides, as the surface is not in the best shape, while heavy rain is expected for Monday and Tuesday. Anyway, I am sure that the stadium will be full and that we will be watching a spectacle. But in the end, I expect a win for England, as the situation in Montenegrin squad is not good at all. 

 


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