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NFL: 49ers vs. Packers (+3.5)


Posted by Murat (2019-11-24 13:11 CET)

Both Kittle and Sanders are expected to return for 49ers and they have the best run offense of the league against a defensive unit struggling against the run since the start of the season. But, the things I like about 49ers considering this matchup ends here more, or less. 

This is Rodgers coming off a bye and being underdogs more than 3 points situation, I don't have numbers for this exact situation, but I know Packers were 10-2 ATS coming off a bye when McCarthy was the coach. And I know, future HOF QB's being underdogs more than a field goal is a winning proposition. To make things sweeter, Rodgers is in a revenge spot as well, if you don't know what I talk about, just google for "2005 NFL Draft".

Yes, both Kittle and Sanders are expected to return, but there is no telling in what capacity they are available to play. Sanders was active against Seahawks in a similar situation couple weeks ago and had to leave the game in the first half. Whereas one thing is sure that, Packers are completely healthy and fresher by default, but 49ers will miss several key members both sides of the field. Stud left tackle Staley is out, game changer speedster Breida is out, excellent edge rusher Ford is out, and some key contributors such as Alexander and Blair are already at IR.

So, Packers' run game should work here against a team which couldn't stop even Cardinals' ground attack and Rodgers should have adequate time in the pocket, considering he has a solid offensive line and 49ers' pass rush is diminished because of injuries. 

My calculated line is 2.5 here, and I love to have Rodgers with the hook in his pocket, coming off a bye against the team which chose Smith over him 14 years ago. 


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