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NFL: 49ers vs. Panthers (+6.5)


Posted by Murat (2019-10-25 14:43 CET)

Hard to justify this line here. 49ers are legit, I don't question them being a real postseason threat, or them having an excellent defense, or a coach with one of the best offensive minds around the league. But, this is a terrible spot for 49ers. After this one, they have three straight divisional games, starting with the Thursday night matchup in four days, whereas Panthers are coming off a bye. 

As a result, Panthers are relatively healthier, as they should get offensive lineman Turner and cornerback Johnson back, whereas 49ers should still both starting tackles, I know Staley had returned to the practice, but my prediction is him missing this one as this is still early considering the initial timetable and being ready for three straight divisional games, Juszczyk, and a starting corner Witherspoon. 
 
So, from my perspective, Panthers have the motivational edge, and they are fresher and healthier side as well. But, what will happen on the field then? 49ers' defensive line is an absolute beast and I like their chances at the trenches, but considering both starting tackles are out, Panthers' defensive line has a great chance to win their respective battle as well. Both secondaries are very good, whereas Panthers have a distinctive edge in the linebackers unit. 
 
On the other side of the ball, it's impossible not to be in love with Shanahan's offense, but let's not forget these two QB's hadn't shown anything conclusively convincing yet on the field, these two teams have the league's second and third best passing defenses, so I expect a long day for each offensive units. And a low scoring game would obviously help an underdog bet. 
 
49ers are a top-5, Panthers are a top-10 for me. Considering the scheduling spot and the injury reports, I would say 49ers are a 1.5, 2 points better team, adding couple points because of the home field, my calculated line here is 3.5, 4. So, the current line of 6 provides enough value to warrant a regular bet, 4 is a key number and 6 is a key number as well, since an overtime touchdown worths that much.

Discuss this pick in the BA forum

 

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