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NFL: Bills vs. Broncos (+4)


Posted by Murat (2019-11-19 23:16 CET)

Don't see this line getting better and the limits are solid (almost 4k) enough to pull an early trigger.

Bills are extremely overrated, let's not forget it was a 3 points game at home against Dolphins until they returned a failed onside kick for a touchdown, whereas they let Redskins to hang around at home as well, and we see how did Redskins look coming off a bye against Jets. 

Besides Bills being overrated, I think they have a terrible matchup here. Bills can't defend the run and Broncos love to run. They have a single receiver who can make difference consistently and Broncos have Harris Jr. to shut it down. Broncos' pass rush and run defense got much better after they got healthier at the defensive front, so they are more than capable to put Allen in third and long situations more often than he would like.

Yes, Broncos are almost mathematically eleminated, but they were in a similar situation the previous week as well and fought hard as underdogs. I don't see any reason why should they not fight hard this week as underdogs as well. Whereas, Bills' schedule after this one is massive and they might overlook as an already overachieved team.

Can't risk to lose the spread here, which passes through the key number of 3, and voids at an another key number 4. Yes, Allen of Broncos against Bills' pass defense looks a terrible matchup on paper, but I like his chances as long as his running game put him in favourable down and distance situations, which I expect to be.

Let's not forget that only game Bills won against a team with a winning record was the one at Tennessee, when the Titans' kicker missed so many kicks that he got released afterwards. Whereas, Broncos had at least stayed close at Indianapolis, at Minnesota and won at Los Angeles against Chargers. 

My line here is 1.5, and as I mentioned before, I'm not planning to risk to lose the spread value. Maybe, there will some really weird things happen during the week, but the only direction I expect this spread to move is not the direction I would like.


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Latest Forum Posts

NHL 2021/22

26-01-22 23:10 by WKSkofu

France ligue 2 24.01.2022

26-01-22 12:08 by Fulham

Spain Division 3

26-01-22 12:07 by Fulham

NBA 2021/2022

25-01-22 17:49 by dejann

England Championship 25.01.2022

25-01-22 10:39 by Fulham

Germany 3liga 25.01.2022

25-01-22 10:36 by Fulham

Rugby Union - 2022

23-01-22 19:52 by Quill

FIBA Europe Cup

23-01-22 13:09 by Raffie

Ukraine 2021/22

23-01-22 13:07 by Raffie

PLK/Poland 2021/2022

20-01-22 22:46 by Raffie

Euroleague 2021/2022

20-01-22 14:25 by dejann