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NFL: Lions vs. Panthers (-4)


Posted by Murat (2018-11-15 08:19 CET)

Panthers are coming off a long week and they should up to redeem themselves after getting humiliated on national television, whereas this is a sandwiched game for Lions between two games against Bears, they will have to play an early game in four days against the archrival Bears, which had just embarassed them this past weekend. 

Besides Panthers being in a better spot, they are the much better team here as well. Panthers have two obvious weaknesses and both of them had been exposed by Steelers, the secondary except solid rookie cornerback Jackson and some positions in their offensive line. But, Lions had just let go their far best receiver and as an another starter Jones is hurt, I don't think they have proper material to exploit Panthers' secondary consistently. And Lions don't have any source of interior pressure neither, so it's very hard to imagine Newton not having a clean pocket more often than not.

When you don't have proper material to exploit your opponents' weak units and when your opponent is a far better team than you, than you don't stand much of a chance. Panthers have the better QB, a much better running game, a much better defensive line and as well as a much much better linebackers unit. Lions have their own share of problems in the defensive backfield and at the offensive line as well. 

Panthers had never recently been a team to trust as road favorites, but here they will face a team against which they owned double digits better DVOA rankings in both sides of the ball until the defensive meltdown against Steelers. They are the healthier side with more days to prepare. They are off a humiliating performance on national TV, whereas their opponents might worry about a divisional revenge game which will take place in four days. And on paper, Lions are a team against which they should match perfectly well. 

Therefore, I expect Panthers to win this one in a dominant fashion, Stafford is a king of backdoor covers as an underdog, but the first, I don't think he'll even have a legitimate chance and the second, Lions looked like a hopeless bunch lately, especially after sending Tate away, so I can't imagine them pushing for a late game rally, instead of starting to think about the upcoming game against Bears, if they are for instance, two touchdowns down at the start of the last quarter.

I would make Panthers a full touchdown favorites here, my score prediction is Panthers to win 30-21.


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