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NFL: Panthers (+6) vs. Saints


Posted by Murat (2018-12-17 14:23 CET)

It might seem crazy to back a team coming off five games losing streak against the mighty Saints, but I like to fade the public here to back a divisional home dog. 

Newton looked legitimately wobbly lately, but he had enough time to rest. He'll face a bottom ten pass defense and let's not forget Panthers are one of the teams with biggest home&away disparity. Yes, they are coming off five straight losses, but four of those losses were on the road and they lost only once at home this season, by three points, against Seahawks in a game they lost their far best cornerback in the first quarter and had several red zone turnovers. 

On the other hand after posting a dud at Dallas, Brees failed to impress against Buccaneers neither. His left tackle Armstead remains out and compared to Bucs, Panthers at least have a much better run defense. This will be the third road game in a row for Saints, which is a terrible spot, whereas Brees always posted worse numbers in the open air stadiums throughout his career. 

Brees generally has his numbers against blitz happy Panthers' defense in recent seasons, but I think the problems he had in recent weeks goes unnoticed here. Saints covered this spread only once on the road against the teams in the playoff hunt currently, at Minnesota, which plays in a dome and in that game Vikings generated 1.2 more yards per play and ten more first downs. 

After Rams lost this morning, this game means a lot less for Saints than Panthers. After this one, they have two home games on horizon and winning both of them would mean them to clinch the home field advantage until the Super Bowl as they own the tiebreaker against Rams. I'm not suggesting they will play to lose tonight, as a win tonight and against Steelers next week will enable coach Payton to rest his starters in the last week of the regular season, but all this weekend we witnessed the teams which need the games against the teams in relatively relaxed spots, such as Colts and Eagles to win their games outright. 

The third road game in a row, 

Panthers play much much better at home,

Saints' offense had been wobbly lately and Brees is historically worse in the outdoors,

A divisional home dog with a spread covering a secondary key number and the public will pound Saints heavily to make up for the weekend losses,

This game means much more for Panthers than for Saints...

It might sound crazy, but I can't resist to the aforementioned notes. My spread is 3,5. 


Discuss this pick in the BA forum

 

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