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NFL: Steelers (+2.5) vs. Browns


Posted by Murat (2019-11-27 00:24 CET)

Don't get the thought process here.

The line was Browns -3 couple weeks ago, yes Browns won that game rather easily, but Steelers lost too many bodies in that game and Rudolph's four interceptions hadn't helped his team a bit. Now, Browns are against favourites on the road, I don't get it.
 
Browns had Garrett available couple weeks ago, whereas Steelers won't have to carry Rudolph anymore. Not because Hodges is way better, but at least there is no doubt, he's in much better mental shape and I'm pretty sure him starting will provide a spark.
 
Yet, Steelers might even not need that spark, this is an obvious revenge game after what happened at the end of the game in Cleveland. Tomlin is an excellent motivator as it's evidenced by his great ATS record at in season revenge games and as underdogs. 
 
Steelers covered this line in every but one game at home, and the only non cover was a 3 points overtime loss against Ravens.
 
The wrong team is favoured. I could wait here, but I would be absolutely shocked to see +3 with decent odds here. Better to pull the trigger now and not to risk to lose any line value. 2 can easily become a key number in the current era of shaky kickers.

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