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NFL: Steelers (-3) vs. Bengals


Posted by Murat (2019-09-30 22:26 CET)

I was holding out for better odds to use double stakes here, but unfortunately that's not the case, so I'll stick with a regular bet.

Let's start with Bengals' offense, the obvious problem are the edge protectors, whereas the interior of the line is a passable unit. But, the thing is arguably Steelers have the best defensive interior of the entire league, whereas both edge rushers of Watt and Dupree will have great match ups here. I certainly doubt Bengals' chances to establish the run as well, which should put Dalton in unfavourable down and distance situations more often than not, a spot he mightily struggles.
 
Dalton will have couple favourable match ups here and there in the rare occasions he is comfortable in the pocket, but without Green, he doesn't have enough weapons in his arsenal to exploit couple weak corners Steelers have consistently. 
 
On the other side of the ball, Bengals have an above average defensive line, but rest of the defensive unit is complete garbage. And to make things even worse, that defensive line, which is by far the best unit of the entire team is banged up and the depth is severely diminished. And to add to that, Steelers still own an above average line, right guard Foster feels the effects of being at the wrong side of the 30, but he's the only vulnerability and he's still not a disaster player whatsoever. 
 
I expected more from Rudolph against 49ers, but let me note that 49ers' defense is the second best defense of the league after the first three weeks according to DVOA. What is certain is that, he was passable against Seahawks even though he was rushed into the action, a defense which is miles better than Bengals' unit, whereas he had a stellar preseason and had great rapport with receivers like Washington and Johnson. I expect to see a much better performance at home after one more week to prepare and embrace being the starter.
 
Yes, this is a big game for Bengals, as it's a divisional game against an arch rival in the prime time, but it's at least as big as for Steelers, since this is their last chance to salvage their season. Achieving anything after being 1-3 might seem a tall task, but let's not forget the co-leaders of AFC North sit at 2-2. So, nothing is over yet and I'll put my money one more time on coach Tomlin to sail his team through the adversity.
 
All in all, besides Steelers being the much better team here, I also like their match ups all around the field as well. Bengals don't have proper material to attack Steelers' weaknesses, whereas their rare strong units won't have the edge against Steelers' respective units. I'm looking for an around touchdown difference here.

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